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General information |
Course unit name: Public Forecasting Plans
Course unit code: 363682
Academic year: 2025-2026
Coordinator: Salvador Torra Porras
Department: Department of Econometrics, Statistics and Applied Economics
Credits: 6
Single program: S
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Estimated learning time |
Total number of hours 150 |
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Face-to-face and/or online activities |
60 |
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- Lecture with practical component |
Face-to-face |
45 |
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- Problem-solving class |
Face-to-face |
15 |
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Supervised project |
40 |
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Independent learning |
50 |
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Competences / Learning outcomes to be gained during study |
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To draw up, analyse and use internal and external accounting and financial information to control management and decision-making processes. |
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To be able to make financial and business decisions, taking into account the current economic situation. |
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To identify the economic agents that make up an economy and to understand how they interrelate so as to take economic decisions with full awareness of their effects. |
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To use suitable financial criteria to identify, analyse and select investment projects. |
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Learning objectives |
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Referring to knowledge Understand the purpose, operation and fundamental characteristics of different models of social security around the world. The course deals specifically with the Spanish Social Security system, the benefits provided, its current state and the influence exerted on it by the European Union. The sustainability of pension systems is analysed and elements of behavioural economics are introduced into the savings decision. |
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Teaching blocks |
1. Main social protection systems
1.1. The concept of the welfare state: origins and objectives
1.2. Evolution: the system of three pillars
1.3. Social Security in Spain: origin and development
1.4. Theoretical models of pensions: defined benefit, defined contribution and notional defined contribution plans
1.5. Databases and empirical analyses
2. Demographic factors and impact on pension systems
2.1. Measuring demographic change in a country: fundamental demographic components to be taken into account in the calculation of projections
2.2. Basic demographic magnitudes and evolution: birth rate, mortality rate, life expectancy and migratory movements
2.3. Demographic scenarios used by major national and international organizations
2.4. Longevity risk: measure and forms of coverage
3. Economic factors and impact on pension systems
3.1. Economic development and impact on the welfare system
3.2. Active population and passive population: evolution of the dependency rate
3.3. Social contributions and financing alternatives
3.4. Social spending and gross domestic product: international comparison
3.5. The Social Security budget
3.6. Economic risks in pension systems
4. Regimes and legislative changes in the pension system in Spain
4.1. General Social Security Scheme
4.2. Special scheme for the self-employed
4.3. Other special regimes
4.4. Passive classes
4.5. The Toledo Pact
4.6. Reserve funds
4.7. Main legislative reforms
5. Pension system benefits
5.1. Contributory pensions
5.2. Non-contributory pensions
5.3. Minimum complements
5.4. International comparison: benefits by country
5.5. Other benefits in the field of the welfare state: dependence and health
6. The sustainability of pension systems
6.1. Sustainability, sufficiency and efficiency: three basic concepts
6.2. Replacement rate
6.3. Complementarity between protection pillars
6.4. Second pillar: occupational pension plans
6.5. Third pillar: individual pension plans and other long-term savings systems
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Teaching methods and general organization |
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The course is taught via a series of theoretical sessions, in which students are expected to participate having first read the relevant assigned material. Three written practical exercises must be completed for each block to demonstrate command of the content. |
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Official assessment of learning outcomes |
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Students may opt for a continuous mode of assessment, which consists of three exercises based on the syllabus. These must be completed and submitted by the specified deadlines in order to pass the course. These exercises are designed to assess the practical skills of students in the application and development of the concepts presented during the classes.
Examination-based assessment Single assessment consists of a written examination on the whole content of the course. Students should demonstrate that they have acquired the same knowledge and skills as those evaluated by the continuous mode of assessment. |
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Reading and study resources |
Check availability in Cercabib
Book
BARR, N; DIAMOND, Peter. La reforma necesaria. El futuro de las pensiones. Madrid: El hombre del tres, 2012
BENARTZI, Shlomo.; LEWIN, R. Save More Tomorrow. Penguin, 2012
GORELLI HERNÁNDEZ, Juan; VILCHEZ, M; ALVAREZ, M; De VAL PENA, A. Lecciones de Seguridad Social. Madrid: Tecnos, 2011
KAHNEMAN, Daniel. Pensar rápido, pensar despacio. Barcelona: Editorial Debate, 2012
¿Pensiones Públicas o Pensiones Privadas? y otros textos: semblanza de Luis Martínez Noval. Prólogo de Felipe González. Siero: La fábrica de Libros, 2014
OCDE (2019) Pensions at a Glance 2019: OECD and G20 Indicators. Paris: OECD Publishing <>
Article
AYUSO, M; HOLZMANN, R. Natalildad, Pirámide Poblacional y Movimientos Migratorios en España: su efecto en el sistema de pensiones. Documento de Trabajo Instituto BBVA de Pensiones, 2014, núm. 8, p. 1-18.
AYUSO, M; BRAVO, J; HOLZMANN, R. Indicadores demográficos alternativos en el cálculo de las proyecciones de población para España y Portugal. Documento de trabajo Instituto BBVA de Pensiones, abril 2015, núm. 11, p. 1-22.
AYUSO, M; GUILLÉN, M; VALERO, D. Eficiencia y equidad en el sistema de pensiones.Portugal. Revista Presupuesto y Gasto Público, 2013, núm. 71, p. 193-204.
VALERO, D. ARTIS, M; AYUSO, M; GARCIA, M. Una propuesta de reforma del sistema de pensiones español basada en un modelo de contribución definida nocional. Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa, 2011, núm. 11, p. 91-113.
THALER, R.H.; BERNARTZI, S. Save More Tomorrow: using Behavioural Economics to increase employee Saving. Journal of Political Economy, Febrer 2004, (vol. supplemen), núm. 112, p. 164-187.
VALERO, D. Perspectivas del sistema público de pensiones y el papel de la previsión complementaria. Ekonomiaz, Revista vasca de Economía del Gobierno Vasco, 2014, núm. 85, 1 semestre, p. 42-65.
VALERO, D. Tendencias en materia de pensiones privadas. El papel de las rentas vitalicias. Pensiones. Una reforma medular. 2013a. Editorial J.A. Herce. Fundación de Estudios Financieros, 175-189
Ayuso, M., Bravo J. M., Holzmann, R. (2021a). Getting life expectancy estimates right for pension policy: period versus cohort approach. Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, 20, 2, 212-231
Ayuso, M., Bravo, J. M., Holzmann, R., Palmer, E. (2021b). Automatic Indexation of the Pension Age to Life Expectancy: When Policy Design Matters. Risks, 9, 96 (https://doi.org/10.3390/risks9050096)
Ayuso, M., Bravo, J. M., Palmer, E. (2021). Edad de jubilación y vinculación a la esperanza de vida: corrigiendo el gap en las estimaciones. Instituto BBVA de Pensiones, Working Paper nº33/2020.
Bravo, J. M., Ayuso, M., Holzmann, R., Palmer, E. (2021a). Addressing the life expectancy gap in pension policy. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 99, 200-221
Electronic text
United Nations. World Mortality Wallchart 2015. Department of Economic and Social Affairs-Population Division, New York, 2015